José Raya, Ibiza Transport Association, on the war in Iran: “There is no shortage of supplies and there will not be one”

“We are facing a context of speculation”. This view is shared by Alfonso Rojo, president of Pimeef (the Small and Medium Enterprise Association of Ibiza and Formentera), and José Raya, president of the Transport Association within this business organisation, when analysing the potential impact on Ibiza of the war against Iran initiated by the United States and Israel. Both rule out, for now, any scenario of supply shortages, although they warn that the conflict is already creating uncertainty and upward pressure on the prices of various raw materials.

Raya, who is also the owner and operations manager of the transport company Punkytrans, acknowledges that the sector is already feeling the impact of the international situation. “It is another blow for freight transport. In the end there are so many factors that I no longer know where we will end up”, he says, adding that “we still do not have exact figures or percentages for the increase in costs”. He also points out that some transport companies have already begun raising their prices, something that will most likely eventually affect consumers.

Transport closely tied to fuel prices

In the transport sector, fuel is a key factor. “The higher fuel prices go, the more transport costs will rise”, warns Raya, noting that fuel represents a fundamental part of the costs of any logistics company. As a result, any variation in fuel prices is ultimately passed along the entire supply chain. “Especially anything that moves in a vehicle”, he summarises, referring to the impact higher costs could have on almost all goods.

Even so, the president of Pimeef’s Transport Association rules out supply problems. “There is no shortage and there will not be one”, he states, although he acknowledges that there may be “price increases” in different sectors.

Anticipated market reactions

Rojo expresses a similar view, arguing that the current situation is largely driven by early reactions in the energy markets. “All announcements suggest that markets are reacting upwards — we are talking about speculation”, he insists. He explains that the real functioning of the energy market means that price increases are not transferred immediately. “Any rises happening today will be reflected in two, three or four weeks, not on the same day”, he says.

Rojo also agrees that, based on the data available to businesses and considering the current context, no product shortages are expected. “There is no indication that there will be shortages of any kind”. In the case of specific goods imported from Iran, the impact would be minimal. “Perhaps some fresh products or certain types of pistachios, but it would be residual”, he says, giving examples of products originating from the Middle East. He adds that the main concern lies in international maritime transport: “We are more concerned about how maritime traffic might react, especially shipments of goods from Asia to Europe”. However, he stresses that, for the moment, there are no signs of shortages of raw materials or other products on the island.

What would happen if the conflict continues?

Both business representatives also recall that the sector experienced a similar situation during the war in Ukraine. In the case of the transport industry, Raya warns that profit margins are extremely tight and that, if the conflict continues for a prolonged period, support from public administrations or the state could become necessary. “Commercial margins in this sector are so small that even the slightest change has an impact”, he explains, recalling the aid measures granted during Russia’s invasion to ensure the viability of companies.

Rojo, for his part, believes that the current situation is different, although equally worrying and uncertain for the population. “They are different conflicts”, he says, comparing the Russian invasion of Ukraine with the current situation in the Middle East, which involves several actors and generates greater regional uncertainty. He adds that “the Iranians are responding against everything around them, and these are not good news nor a good working environment for anyone”.

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